Modelling and forecasting dairy milk production: Evidence from Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Dairy sector is one of the fastest growing sectors in world with little global contributions from African countries and Nigeria particular. This study modelled forecast diary milk production Iwo its environs using different variants Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. Data used this comprised daily between 26th May, 2021 31st 2022 as obtained Bowen University collection centre Iwo, Nigeria. Sstationary was examined ADF test p-value of. 0020 indicating data stationary at level (p<.05). Preliminary result indicates that area it peak June, 295 litres least value September, average 63.95 64.93 respectively. There no significant difference produced these two years (p>.05). Four ARMA models, ARMA(1,1), ARMA(1,2), ARMA(2,1) ARMA(2,2) were identified tentative models BIC values 7.528, 7.550, 7.549 7.570 The four satisfied model diagnostic checking (p>0.05) (1,1) gave lowest Root Mean Square Error. Hence, ARMA(1,1) adjudged best forecasting among competing Result 30 days shows there will be a consistent steady increase within range 38 to 55 per day.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: IOP conference series
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1757-899X', '1757-8981']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1219/1/012026